‘By year-end 2045, an estimated $84.4 trillion will change hands from aging households passing their wealth on to heirs and charities. This shift in wealth will reshape the wealth management landscape over the next quarter-century and will force advisors to alter their existing business models and service’, according to Cerulli Assoc. By 2027, more than 50% of that amount will be from the Baby Boomers as you’d expect.
World reserve currency: The dollar is under attack by the Chinese and Russians. I would not be surprised if the dollar gets caught up in high volatility going both directions and big swings either way may have serious consequences, at least for the short term.
Politics: One year and two months away, the divided country will probably be more divided. I have no idea how the market will perform next year during the heated campaigns; historically we don’t learn too much either. The seriousness of blaming each other for problems without ever solving the problem is top of my mind and well covered by others. This saying comes to mind, ‘don’t confuse what you wish were true with what is really true.’ I really dislike voting for someone because I am voting against someone.
The number of companies that trade on the major exchanges has been declining for many years now, but the number of privately held companies has grown significantly. Staying private so long is unusual; however, I do note that some that would prefer to be traded on the exchanges might not currently have that as an option, due to market conditions.
Intelligence now is artificial, and while I can’t predict all the reasons why this is going to be good or bad, it appears to be coming quickly in all facets of our lives.
Regional banks scrutinize us to determine if they will give us a loan. However today, we scrutinize them to see if we want to give them a deposit.
Investment firms are already raising funds to buy the commercial real estate that is expected to be foreclosed on, refinanced and sold at bargain prices.
And finally, the yield curve rewards short term money with a higher return than long term money in the bond markets. This is the ‘inverted yield curve’ phenomenon that almost always precedes a recession and is the main reason so many people are expecting we will have one soon.
Inverted thinking has me believing that the markets might defy most logic and perform better than expected.
